See what variance can do to a perfectly valid edge.
A 50% win rate does not mean win, loss, win, loss. Outcomes cluster. Losing streaks happen. Drawdowns can arrive even when the underlying maths has not changed.
One possible path
An edge does not remove randomness.
If your average trade has positive expected value, that tells you something useful about a sufficiently large sample. It does not tell you the order in which individual wins and losses will arrive.
Run the exact same settings several times. The expected value is unchanged, but the realised path, longest losing streak and deepest drawdown can look very different. That gap is variance.
- Set the win rate to 50%.
- Set wins to $120 and losses to $100.
- Run 100 trades several times.
- Compare the final balance and longest losing streak on each run.
The underlying EV is positive each time. The path is not the same.
You still need a reliable edge before any of this is useful.
This simulator can show you what randomness looks like, but it cannot give a weak strategy positive expected value. In our free training, we explain the maths-backed edge we use to look for discrepancies in prop-firm rules and economics.
It is designed to make sense whether you are an absolute beginner or an experienced trader. No card is required.